Search on Ifri.org

See the 0 results

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

See all our analyses

Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

Memos
|
|
couv_briefing_fayet-ferey_us.png

The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking.

Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
© Shutterstock
In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them.
 
The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight.
 
The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
 
Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

Usage

How to cite this publication

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

PDF icon
Decoration
Author(s)
Héloïse FAYET

Héloïse FAYET

Chercheuse, responsable du programme dissuasion et prolifération, Centre des études de sécurité de l'Ifri

amelie-min.jpg

Amélie FÉREY

Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Papers

A Fragile Consensus? The Pressure on the Norm Against Nuclear Testing

22 April 2025

Apart from North Korea, no state has conducted explosive nuclear tests in the 21st century, reflecting the emergence of a strong international norm against such testing.

Doreen HORSCHIG
Memos

The Franco-German Brigade and the Revival of European Defense

08 April 2025

One thing has been clear since Donald Trump's return to the White House: the very existence of the European unification project is threatened. Unless it develops a sovereign defense policy to counter the war in Ukraine and the weakening of American security guarantees, the European Union will continue to see its internal cohesion and external attractiveness wane.

Jacob ROSS Nicolas TÉTERCHEN
External Publications

Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?

03 April 2025

Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe develop an independent nuclear deterrent?

Heloïse FAYET
Ramses2024_couv.jpg

RAMSES 2024. A World to Be Remade

06 September 2023

For its 42nd edition, RAMSES 2024 identifies three major challenges for 2024. 

Thierry de MONTBRIAL Dominique DAVID
Page image credits
Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
© Shutterstock
Related Subjects
Security - Defense , French Defense Policy , Cyberdefense , War and Armed conflict , Defense Policy and Armed Forces , Anticipation , Red Team , Military foresight , Warfare , , , United States

How can this study be cited?

couv_briefing_fayet-ferey_us.png
Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight, from Ifri by
Copy
couv_briefing_fayet-ferey_us.png

Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight